Analysis: Global Currency Trends Post-2024 US Election
Following Donald Trump’s victory in the November 2024 US presidential election, most global currencies began showing signs of weakening. The win brought expectations of significant shifts in US economic and trade policies, including potential increases in protectionist measures and tax reforms, which enhance the dollar’s appeal as a “safe haven.”
One of the key drivers of dollar strength is shifting market expectations regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy. Despite forecasts for a rate cut in December 2024, the Fed’s current rhetoric questions the need for further easing.
The dollar’s rise is pressuring export-driven economies, including those in the Eurozone and Asia, to adopt more accommodative monetary policies. This widens interest rate differentials, making the dollar more attractive to global investors and indirectly strengthening it against other currencies, including the Kazakhstani tenge.
Among the most affected currencies, the Russian ruble (-9.30%) and the Kazakhstani tenge (-7.47%) showed the sharpest declines.
The ruble’s depreciation is largely driven by heightened sanctions, which impacted many Russian banks, including Gazprombank, a key intermediary for gas trade. As a major trading partner of Kazakhstan, the ruble’s performance has inevitably influenced the tenge.
Other emerging market currencies, such as the Brazilian real (-4.73%) and the Uruguayan peso (-3.81%), also weakened, reflecting a broader trend of capital outflows from developing markets.
The Swiss franc, Swedish krona, and Danish krone experienced milder declines, maintaining relative stability despite global uncertainty.
In contrast, the Israeli shekel (+3.17%) and the British pound (+2.06%) strengthened, possibly due to local factors and expectations of stable central bank policies.
https://economykz.org/?p=11149&lang=en
Following Donald Trump’s victory in the November 2024 US presidential election, most global currencies began showing signs of weakening. The win brought expectations of significant shifts in US economic and trade policies, including potential increases in protectionist measures and tax reforms, which enhance the dollar’s appeal as a “safe haven.”
One of the key drivers of dollar strength is shifting market expectations regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy. Despite forecasts for a rate cut in December 2024, the Fed’s current rhetoric questions the need for further easing.
The dollar’s rise is pressuring export-driven economies, including those in the Eurozone and Asia, to adopt more accommodative monetary policies. This widens interest rate differentials, making the dollar more attractive to global investors and indirectly strengthening it against other currencies, including the Kazakhstani tenge.
Among the most affected currencies, the Russian ruble (-9.30%) and the Kazakhstani tenge (-7.47%) showed the sharpest declines.
The ruble’s depreciation is largely driven by heightened sanctions, which impacted many Russian banks, including Gazprombank, a key intermediary for gas trade. As a major trading partner of Kazakhstan, the ruble’s performance has inevitably influenced the tenge.
Other emerging market currencies, such as the Brazilian real (-4.73%) and the Uruguayan peso (-3.81%), also weakened, reflecting a broader trend of capital outflows from developing markets.
The Swiss franc, Swedish krona, and Danish krone experienced milder declines, maintaining relative stability despite global uncertainty.
In contrast, the Israeli shekel (+3.17%) and the British pound (+2.06%) strengthened, possibly due to local factors and expectations of stable central bank policies.
https://economykz.org/?p=11149&lang=en