Turkish Durum Wheat Update as of 30 July 2024:
1. Except for a few high-altitude central Anatolian locations, the durum wheat harvest is completed in Turkey.
2. Prices are stable at 285-300 USD/ton delivered to pasta and bulgur plants in Turkey.
3. We have some 15-16% protein excellent quality durum wheat, but generally, rain has affected protein levels in many durum-growing areas, causing a bit of a blackened embryo and protein problems.
4. TMO is still the biggest durum buyer with average payment terms of 20-30 days and payment of 300-315 USD/ton.
5. The export of durum from Turkey is very limited. All durum that is currently being loaded was sold much earlier, and no new trades have been heard of so far.
6. The ban on durum and milling wheat is still in place until 15 October 2024, and it may be extended until 31 December 2024.
7. The Tunisian tender of today with a price of 322.89-327.69 USD/ton cannot be supplied from Turkey; it is simply not possible.
8. We hear that Russian durum wheat prices are cheap. Considering European high taxes on Russian durum wheat, what options do they have? Their only logical option is to sell to North Africa, and that is exactly what they will do. Furthermore, we hear that sellers/buyers are talking about a 255-265 USD/ton FOB price range for Russian durum, and if this is so, delivery to North Africa should be around the 300 USD/ton range.
09. As for Kazakh durum wheat, if the quality is good, Turkey may be buying high-protein (15-16-17% protein amber-colored) Kazakh durum despite the complicated and costly logistics of 110-130 USD/ton by truck over 4500 kilometers to Turkey, of course after the import ban on 15 October 2024, the earliest. If Turkey continues with the ban, Kazaks will also compete for North African tenders/markets...
10. Finally, I personally think in Turkey we have produced 4.6-4.7 million tons of durum wheat this year, but export will not be as high as last year. More specifically, ceteris paribus, our export for this season could only be in the range of 600-800k tons maximum, opening room for Canadian durum wheat to be sold mainly to Italy only a bit to North Africa albeit with a tough competition from Russia and Kazakhstan.
( Saban Buttanri)
1. Except for a few high-altitude central Anatolian locations, the durum wheat harvest is completed in Turkey.
2. Prices are stable at 285-300 USD/ton delivered to pasta and bulgur plants in Turkey.
3. We have some 15-16% protein excellent quality durum wheat, but generally, rain has affected protein levels in many durum-growing areas, causing a bit of a blackened embryo and protein problems.
4. TMO is still the biggest durum buyer with average payment terms of 20-30 days and payment of 300-315 USD/ton.
5. The export of durum from Turkey is very limited. All durum that is currently being loaded was sold much earlier, and no new trades have been heard of so far.
6. The ban on durum and milling wheat is still in place until 15 October 2024, and it may be extended until 31 December 2024.
7. The Tunisian tender of today with a price of 322.89-327.69 USD/ton cannot be supplied from Turkey; it is simply not possible.
8. We hear that Russian durum wheat prices are cheap. Considering European high taxes on Russian durum wheat, what options do they have? Their only logical option is to sell to North Africa, and that is exactly what they will do. Furthermore, we hear that sellers/buyers are talking about a 255-265 USD/ton FOB price range for Russian durum, and if this is so, delivery to North Africa should be around the 300 USD/ton range.
09. As for Kazakh durum wheat, if the quality is good, Turkey may be buying high-protein (15-16-17% protein amber-colored) Kazakh durum despite the complicated and costly logistics of 110-130 USD/ton by truck over 4500 kilometers to Turkey, of course after the import ban on 15 October 2024, the earliest. If Turkey continues with the ban, Kazaks will also compete for North African tenders/markets...
10. Finally, I personally think in Turkey we have produced 4.6-4.7 million tons of durum wheat this year, but export will not be as high as last year. More specifically, ceteris paribus, our export for this season could only be in the range of 600-800k tons maximum, opening room for Canadian durum wheat to be sold mainly to Italy only a bit to North Africa albeit with a tough competition from Russia and Kazakhstan.
( Saban Buttanri)