As expected, the Turkish government will continue with the import ban on wheat to Turkey, but with a small revision.
According to a communiqué from the Turkish Flour Association, Turkish exporters, under the Inward Processing Regime (DIR), will need to buy a minimum of 85% of their wheat from TMO stocks to qualify to import 15% of wheat from imported goods or goods currently stored in bonded warehouses.
This is not yet an official decree from TMO or the Ministry. However, I expect this figure to possibly move to 75-80% for TMO purchases, depending on world wheat prices (currently at 230 USD/ton for 12.5% protein to Marmara, which is roughly 8,000 TL/ton). The Ministry of Finance may not agree to this price, so a purchase price of 9,000 TL/ton seems more logical. A 25-20% allowance for imported wheat would also be more reasonable.
Let’s see what we hear in the coming days, leading up to 15 October 2024, when the official ban will be lifted or new regulations will come into force.
Whatever the regulation may be, demand for imported wheat will likely be very limited, as TMO still has a substantial amount of wheat to meet the needs of local pasta and flour producers in Turkey. This may reduce the price of imported wheat, as well as wheat held by private traders and farmers, if any.
According to a communiqué from the Turkish Flour Association, Turkish exporters, under the Inward Processing Regime (DIR), will need to buy a minimum of 85% of their wheat from TMO stocks to qualify to import 15% of wheat from imported goods or goods currently stored in bonded warehouses.
This is not yet an official decree from TMO or the Ministry. However, I expect this figure to possibly move to 75-80% for TMO purchases, depending on world wheat prices (currently at 230 USD/ton for 12.5% protein to Marmara, which is roughly 8,000 TL/ton). The Ministry of Finance may not agree to this price, so a purchase price of 9,000 TL/ton seems more logical. A 25-20% allowance for imported wheat would also be more reasonable.
Let’s see what we hear in the coming days, leading up to 15 October 2024, when the official ban will be lifted or new regulations will come into force.
Whatever the regulation may be, demand for imported wheat will likely be very limited, as TMO still has a substantial amount of wheat to meet the needs of local pasta and flour producers in Turkey. This may reduce the price of imported wheat, as well as wheat held by private traders and farmers, if any.