Durum Wheat Market News

Results of Tunisian tender:

Amber 25.000t at 340,29$ Cif

Viterra 2 x 25.000t at 339,49$ - 340,49$ Cif

Casillo 25.000t at 340,69$ Cif

Shipment between Jan 15 - Feb 25 depending on origin

TMO Tender for Durum Wheat Sale (100,000 MT)

Date of Tender: December 4, 2024

Participants: Only foreign companies are eligible to participate.

Domestic companies operating in Free Zones in Turkey can also submit bids, provided they export to the Free Zones where they operate using vessels on an FOB basis from Mersin/Iskenderun.

As expected, the Turkish government will continue with the import ban on wheat to Turkey, but with a small revision.

According to a communiqué from the Turkish Flour Association, Turkish exporters, under the Inward Processing Regime (DIR), will need to buy a minimum of 85% of their wheat from TMO stocks to qualify to import 15% of wheat from imported goods or goods currently stored in bonded warehouses.

This is not yet an official decree from TMO or the Ministry. However, I expect this figure to possibly move to 75-80% for TMO purchases, depending on world wheat prices (currently at 230 USD/ton for 12.5% protein to Marmara, which is roughly 8,000 TL/ton). The Ministry of Finance may not agree to this price, so a purchase price of 9,000 TL/ton seems more logical. A 25-20% allowance for imported wheat would also be more reasonable.

Let’s see what we hear in the coming days, leading up to 15 October 2024, when the official ban will be lifted or new regulations will come into force.

Whatever the regulation may be, demand for imported wheat will likely be very limited, as TMO still has a substantial amount of wheat to meet the needs of local pasta and flour producers in Turkey. This may reduce the price of imported wheat, as well as wheat held by private traders and farmers, if any.

As of September 2024, the price for durum wheat in Canada is around CAD 292.77 per metric tonne (USD 216.65). This price has remained stable in recent days. The durum wheat market is facing pressure due to competition from other exporting countries, contributing to lower prices this year​.

Turkish Durum Wheat Update as of 30 July 2024:

 1.⁠ ⁠Except for a few high-altitude central Anatolian locations, the durum wheat harvest is completed in Turkey.

 2.⁠ ⁠Prices are stable at 285-300 USD/ton delivered to pasta and bulgur plants in Turkey.

 3.⁠ ⁠We have some 15-16% protein excellent quality durum wheat, but generally, rain has affected protein levels in many durum-growing areas, causing a bit of a blackened embryo and protein problems.

 4.⁠ ⁠TMO is still the biggest durum buyer with average payment terms of 20-30 days and payment of 300-315 USD/ton.

 5.⁠ ⁠The export of durum from Turkey is very limited. All durum that is currently being loaded was sold much earlier, and no new trades have been heard of so far.

6.⁠ ⁠The ban on durum and milling wheat is still in place until 15 October 2024, and it may be extended until 31 December 2024.

 7.⁠ ⁠The Tunisian tender of today with a price of 322.89-327.69 USD/ton cannot be supplied from Turkey; it is simply not possible.

 8.⁠ ⁠We hear that Russian durum wheat prices are cheap. Considering European high taxes on Russian durum wheat, what options do they have? Their only logical option is to sell to North Africa, and that is exactly what they will do. Furthermore, we hear that sellers/buyers are talking about a 255-265 USD/ton FOB price range for Russian durum, and if this is so, delivery to North Africa should be around the 300 USD/ton range.

09.⁠ ⁠As for Kazakh durum wheat, if the quality is good, Turkey may be buying high-protein (15-16-17% protein amber-colored) Kazakh durum despite the complicated and costly logistics of 110-130 USD/ton by truck over 4500 kilometers to Turkey, of course after the import ban on 15 October 2024, the earliest. If Turkey continues with the ban, Kazaks will also compete for North African tenders/markets...

10.⁠ ⁠Finally, I personally think in Turkey we have produced 4.6-4.7 million tons of durum wheat this year, but export will not be as high as last year. More specifically, ceteris paribus, our export for this season could only be in the range of 600-800k tons maximum, opening room for Canadian durum wheat to be sold mainly to Italy only a bit to North Africa albeit with a tough competition from Russia and Kazakhstan.

( Saban Buttanri)

4th of July
Tunisia's ODC purchased 50,000 Mt of durum wheat at average price $325.3 /Mt, any origin, C&F delivery price, September ’24 shipment.

Turkish Durum Wheat Update:

1.⁠ ⁠The durum wheat harvest is basically completed in Turkey.

2.⁠ ⁠Currently, a big chunk of durum wheat is going to TMO at $303-318 USD/ton, delivered to TMO/Lidaş silos.

3.⁠ ⁠I estimate the crop size to be about 4.6-4.7 million tons.

4.⁠ ⁠Export is very limited; currently, only one 5k vessel is under loading, whereas last year, 1.1 million tons were booked/underloading at this time of the year.

5.⁠ ⁠I expect very limited export from Turkey. If prices continue as they are with Canada, the USA, Russia, Spain, and Kazakhstan, our export could be limited to 500k tons compared to last year's 1.6 million tons.
6.⁠ ⁠Local durum wheat prices are in the range of 9,300-9,900 TL/ton ($281-300 USD/ton), depending on location, available buyers, quality, and payment terms.

7.⁠ ⁠Protein level is a serious problem in year, especially in Mardin and Diyarbakir. Conversely, Şanlıurfa has good protein levels but not enough for high-protein pasta producers targeting high-end markets like Japan, Canada, Taiwan, Europe and the USA.

8.⁠ ⁠Due to protein problems, Turkey might import high-protein durum wheat from Kazakhstan, Canada, and the USA if the government allows durum wheat imports after October 15, 2024 with the current prices at overseas.

9.⁠ ⁠In some regions, we have extremely good quality and perfect colored durum wheat but the protein levels are at only 11-12.5% protein level (please see some photos of 11-12% durum wheat photos of Ovidio seeds in Diyarbakir).

In view of this fact, we could mix our local durum wheat with 15-16% protein imported durum wheat to obtain 13-14% protein pasta suitable for markets like Japan, the USA, Taiwan etc.

( Saban Buttanri)

The North Dakota Wheat Commission issues a weekly wheat report

The Northern Durum crop also looks promising. Condition ratings show 88% of the durum in North Dakota is rated in good to excellent condition, compared to 65% on average and 61% one year ago. Crop development is slightly ahead of average with 73% of the durum headed out and 28% starting to change color. In Montana, 59% of the crop has headed out and 61% is rated in good to excellent condition, compared to only 17% last year.

1) Wheat flour exports can be done by using local crop.

2) Turkish Milling/Durum wheat and barley exports can be done which will be subject to get export licence from TMO.

3) Wheat imports were banned bw 21 june - 15 october. This period can be extend depending on the market conditions.